Last night the Hamilton Board of Education voted 3-1 (before appointing a new 5th member) to proceed to a straw vote on the proposed merger; Morrisville had voted earlier, 5-0 in favor, so the straw vote will happen in 4-5 weeks. (Late October, I presume.) No one on the board spoke in favor of the merger as such; the three "yes" votes spoke in favor of having a chance for voters to educate themselves and decide. Before that, they asked for community input in addition to the letters they'd received -- apparently most of the letters had urged them to vote "no" even on the straw vote, but of course some are in favor of the merger. I didn't expect to say anything, but in the end I went over part of what I'd said in my letter. Here's the letter, and then I'll respond to some of what I heard in some of the responses...sorry for length.
Dear Hamilton Board of Education,
As a CAC member, I've tried to do my homework, and here's my final essay. I've tried to make it self-contained, but many points are expanded elsewhere or based on data from the state or data collected by the SES Study Group, so I've included some links in case anyone wants to follow them up.
The proposed merger of Hamilton Central School and Morrisville-Eaton Central School is not actually a cost-cutting merger; it is a cost-shifting merger. It proposes to reduce staffing cost and to increase bus cost by about the same amount (unless fuel costs continue to rise, at which point it becomes a net loss). If we do this, it's because the state promises that downstate taxpayers will subsidize the merged district to a greater extent than the separate districts. This includes direct subsidies to the merger, ending in 15 years, and a "permanently" increased aid ratio for Hamilton. (Until aid ratios are recalculated, that is.)
In 2009, the MECS rate was $15.36 per $1000, where HCS was at
$15.91. In 2013, we see MECS at $15.69 and HCS at $17.62. In other
words, Morrisville responded to a multi-year crisis by a total increase
of 2.1%; Hamilton by an increase of 10.7%. In 2009, Hamilton residents
paid (15.91-15.36)/15.36=3.6% more than those in Morrisville; in 2013
it's (17.62-15.69)/15.69=12.3% more. These are not similar choices.
There is no way to say that one set of choices was "right" and another was "wrong." They are different. In 2012, the Post-Standard wrote
Similarly, there is no way to say that either choice of school location, made over decades, is right or wrong. Hamilton Central School is 0 miles from Hamilton -- it's inside the village, and kids can and do walk to it from anywhere inside the village. Morrisville-Eaton Central School, according to Google maps, is 3.5 miles from central Morrisville, 7 miles from Eaton. HCS and M-ECS parents in the Community Advisory Council meetings disagreed about which is better:
Sincerely,
Tom Myers
I should probably add a few comments, based on reactions I've heard so far. Somehow people, despite my disclaimers, interpreted this as saying that Hamilton cares more about education than Morrisville. No, that's not my point, and if it were I would shut up altogether because I have no reason to believe that the median voter in Hamilton cares more about education than the median voter in Morrisville. From my experience in CAC meetings, I doubt that there's any real difference. My point is merely that 2.1% is not equal to 10.7% (and that 3.5 miles is not equal to 0.)
Why did the communities come up with such different numbers, if they care equally? Because there are other factors; the situation of the median Morrisville voter and the median Hamilton voter are different, even where their opinions are identical. Different, and getting more so:
http://www.city-data.com/city/Morrisville-New-York.html says
On page 65 of the SES data set I mentioned above, you see that Hamilton's "Percent unemployed" rate was then a little more than half of Morrisville's (6.4% vs. 11.6%). Why was this happening? I suspect that the major difference is that Colgate and the hospital put more into the local economy than SUNY Morrisville can. A secondary difference would be the national trends in unemployment, graphed at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Unemployment_Rate_by_Education_Level.png I don't know for sure, though, and it doesn't really matter. What matters is that the towns do have substantially different situations and that those situations are not converging. To tell people in different situations that they must make the same decisions, must pay the same tax rates (and must site their buildings on the same principles) is not egalitarianism. It's not good planning, either.
Oh, and yes, I do believe in equality of opportunity, and I'm glad that the state gives Morrisville more aid per local dollar than it gives Hamilton. Any particular aid ratio may be wrong, but it's a good mechanism, and I really hope that mechanism won't collapse although I expect it to be seriously stressed in years to come. I'm also glad that an increasing range of technological educational opportunities are low-cost or cost-free, like the Khan Academy. (Consider signing up your kids, and sign up as their coach?) That needs to expand -- and fortunately, it is expanding. That doesn't mean that I think that it's a good idea to require that both communities pay the same tax rates.
Update (October 12) In the letter above, I quoted the Syracuse Post-Standard's 2012 article saying that M-ECS had cut out all of its AP classes. Indeed, the SES data provided to us as CAC members said, as of early September of 2013 Feasibility Study HAMILTON MORRISVILLE presented on Sept 9 and 12
may do are doing better, at least in offerings -- the "qualified" score in AP exams is a 3; Hamilton's average AP exam scores go above and below that level. As I said above, "My point is merely that 2.1% is not equal to 10.7% (and that 3.5 miles is not equal to 0.)" That point doesn't need an update, but I thank Bruce Sherwood for telling me about M-E's improved offerings.
Tom Myers
2013-09-15
2013-09-15
Dear Hamilton Board of Education,
As a CAC member, I've tried to do my homework, and here's my final essay. I've tried to make it self-contained, but many points are expanded elsewhere or based on data from the state or data collected by the SES Study Group, so I've included some links in case anyone wants to follow them up.
The proposed merger of Hamilton Central School and Morrisville-Eaton Central School is not actually a cost-cutting merger; it is a cost-shifting merger. It proposes to reduce staffing cost and to increase bus cost by about the same amount (unless fuel costs continue to rise, at which point it becomes a net loss). If we do this, it's because the state promises that downstate taxpayers will subsidize the merged district to a greater extent than the separate districts. This includes direct subsidies to the merger, ending in 15 years, and a "permanently" increased aid ratio for Hamilton. (Until aid ratios are recalculated, that is.)
The state's promise is undoubtedly sincere, and past
promises of similar aid have been fulfilled. Skepticism is nonetheless warranted,
because last year's State Budget Crisis Task Force report makes it nearly certain that the state will have to renege on some
promises to somebody in the not-too-distant future. ( http://hamiltoncentraloptions.
In the winter of 2008-2009, we had a financial crisis; the last few years have provided a pretty good test of what people choose, when they have to make hard choices with no good answers. Ken Bausch collected the "Tax on True Value" tables from the comptroller's office at http://www.osc.state.ny.us/
In the winter of 2008-2009, we had a financial crisis; the last few years have provided a pretty good test of what people choose, when they have to make hard choices with no good answers. Ken Bausch collected the "Tax on True Value" tables from the comptroller's office at http://www.osc.state.ny.us/
I believe these rates tell us something about the compatibility of the two communities.
There is no way to say that one set of choices was "right" and another was "wrong." They are different. In 2012, the Post-Standard wrote
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2012/03/new_york_ state_school_district.html
New York state school districts won't merge even when offered extra money | syracuse.com
In 2007 and in 2008, Newsweek magazine recognized Morrisville-Eaton
High School as one of the best in the country based on the number of
Advanced Placement courses it offered its students.
This year, the Madison County school doesn’t have a single AP class.
The district jettisoned them as enrollment and state aid dropped, costs
rose and it cut staff and spending to balance its budgets.
This
is the choice made by Morrisville taxpayers, under serious pressure. We
can all sympathize with that choice, we can say no one who wasn't
involved should criticize that choice, but it wasn't the choice made by
Hamilton taxpayers. If HCS had been faced with
comparably drastic cuts we would almost certainly have had a comfortable supermajority
for even higher tax rates than those we chose; Morrisville evidently did
not. Quite possibly both choices were correct; if that's the case, then
we can only say that the two districts should have different tax rates. If we'd been a merged district, the different choices would not have been possible.
Similarly, there is no way to say that either choice of school location, made over decades, is right or wrong. Hamilton Central School is 0 miles from Hamilton -- it's inside the village, and kids can and do walk to it from anywhere inside the village. Morrisville-Eaton Central School, according to Google maps, is 3.5 miles from central Morrisville, 7 miles from Eaton. HCS and M-ECS parents in the Community Advisory Council meetings disagreed about which is better:
http://hamiltoncentraloptions.blogspot.com/2012/11/ consolidation-location- rephrased.html
HamiltonCentralOptions: Consolidation Location -- Rephrased
My kids all got themselves to music lessons in town, after school; they
would also meet friends at local food places, and one had a habit of
stopping for coffee while walking to high school. Groups of kids and
grownups, e.g. theatrical and athletic groups, have found places to
meet. I always thought this convenience was a major advantage; it turns
out that some M-ECS parents think that their lack of this convenience
is a major advantage, because truancy is harder work when your school
is out in the middle of nowhere. That's interesting. It seems there's
a tradeoff between making life harder for kids you trust, and making
life harder for kids you don't.
Again, that's not a question of right or wrong: M-ECS voters over the
years made a choice, and M-ECS parents now make a principled defense of
that choice, and Hamilton parents made a different choice. If we'd been a
merged district, these different choices would not have been possible.
There's no obvious
reason to believe that such differences will subside, and it is
important to remember that the SES building-usage plan is not a
commitment or a prediction; it's an option, to be voted on by the board
of a merged district. The SES tax-rate plan is similarly not
a commitment or a prediction; it's an option. In future
building-location votes, in future tax-rate votes, there will be
winners and losers and bitterness which will lead the losers to wish
that there had been no merger. The winners may agree.
There are other differences between the
communities, which may help to explain the different choices; I want to
point some of them out, preferably without jumping to conclusions about
how decisive these are. The ACS data shown in CAC meetings, on page 63
of the data file
http://www.hamiltoncentral.
shows adult educational attainment, which we can summarize as follows:
| didn't finish high school | graduate/professional degree | in between | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton | 6.3% | 26.3% | 67.4% |
| Morrisville | 21.0% | 8.4% | 70.6% |
It's a rather striking difference. Of course, most people are in between, and the rather striking difference may not matter.
Again, the recent state assessment data for grades 3-8 as distributed by SES and shown on http://hamiltoncentraloptions.
Similarly, the "District Need Resource Capacity Index" difference at http://hamiltoncentraloptions.
What does matter is the difference in voting patterns, which may or may not be caused by these particular measurable differences between the communities. As communities, we have made different choices in the past, and we should not be trying to impose our choices on one another in the future; we should not replace "we're different, and we cooperate on lots of things" with "I win, you lose." I believe that the proposed merger should be rejected at this time.
Again, the recent state assessment data for grades 3-8 as distributed by SES and shown on http://hamiltoncentraloptions.
Similarly, the "District Need Resource Capacity Index" difference at http://hamiltoncentraloptions.
What does matter is the difference in voting patterns, which may or may not be caused by these particular measurable differences between the communities. As communities, we have made different choices in the past, and we should not be trying to impose our choices on one another in the future; we should not replace "we're different, and we cooperate on lots of things" with "I win, you lose." I believe that the proposed merger should be rejected at this time.
Do I have an alternative plan to replace it? No, but I do have observations.
(1) As enrollments shrink, we may get desperate--and we will have a new option. It's possible that a few years hence, a merger would work in which Andrews is closed, the MECS Middle-High building becomes an elementary-middle school and Morrisville students come to Hamilton for high school. This would still have serious problems, but it would be a cost-saving merger rather than just a cost-shifting merger. It might well look good a few years from now, even if -- or especially if -- the state fiscal situation looks dire and K-12 aid, the largest state budget item, is forced downward.
(2) Cost issues across the state may lead to major mandate relief. Right now, it's not terribly useful to note (as at http://hamiltoncentraloptions.
(1) As enrollments shrink, we may get desperate--and we will have a new option. It's possible that a few years hence, a merger would work in which Andrews is closed, the MECS Middle-High building becomes an elementary-middle school and Morrisville students come to Hamilton for high school. This would still have serious problems, but it would be a cost-saving merger rather than just a cost-shifting merger. It might well look good a few years from now, even if -- or especially if -- the state fiscal situation looks dire and K-12 aid, the largest state budget item, is forced downward.
(2) Cost issues across the state may lead to major mandate relief. Right now, it's not terribly useful to note (as at http://hamiltoncentraloptions.
(3) As we go further into the 21st century, we get more and
more 21st century resources which have the potential to restructure the
economics of education, as well as making educational practice fit
better with the results of half a century of motivational research. The
Khan Academy, (as at http://hamiltoncentraloptions.
There will be more choices; if Khan is right (and perhaps
even if he isn't) we will have the choice of leaving behind the
traditional classroom altogether, with teachers spending their time with
individuals and small groups but never delivering lectures or group
examinations. Our communities may both choose some further-evolved
version of the "One World Schoolhouse", and may then merge with very
little at stake. Alternatively, different communities may want to make
different choices. We should not bind ourselves now to force choices on
each other. This
merger, at this time, should be rejected.
Should
it go on to a straw vote? I don't think so, for two reasons. First,
because the issues I've been talking about here are genuinely
complicated. Whichever way we turn, we are driving into fog. Voters
elect board members to study complicated things and make decisions; it's
not ideal for the board member to say "it's too complicated, so I'm
giving it back to you." Second, I'm afraid that the vote, and many of
the discussions leading to the vote, will be emotionally divisive
because it will not be based primarily on the data. I've already heard
people framing it as elitism vs. egalitarianism, which strikes me as
totally unhelpful. Genuine elitism would actually be compatible with
"yes" or with "no" -- and so would egalitarianism. It depends on the
data, and the context. I believe that the data, in context, say "no".
Tom Myers
I should probably add a few comments, based on reactions I've heard so far. Somehow people, despite my disclaimers, interpreted this as saying that Hamilton cares more about education than Morrisville. No, that's not my point, and if it were I would shut up altogether because I have no reason to believe that the median voter in Hamilton cares more about education than the median voter in Morrisville. From my experience in CAC meetings, I doubt that there's any real difference. My point is merely that 2.1% is not equal to 10.7% (and that 3.5 miles is not equal to 0.)
Why did the communities come up with such different numbers, if they care equally? Because there are other factors; the situation of the median Morrisville voter and the median Hamilton voter are different, even where their opinions are identical. Different, and getting more so:
http://www.city-data.com/city/Morrisville-New-York.html says
Estimated median household income in 2011: $44,085 (it was $34,375 in 2000)where http://www.city-data.com/city/Hamilton-New-York.html says
Estimated per capita income in 2011: $9,849
Estimated median house or condo value in 2011: $123,779 (it was $73,900 in 2000)
Estimated median household income in 2011: $53,691 (it was $36,583 in 2000)That looks like the two communities are diverging, being financially more different in 2011 than in 2000, from less than 10% difference in median household income to more than 20%, from 41% difference in median house value to 70%. It is quite possible that a 2.1% increase for Morrisville was less affordable than a 10.7% increase for Hamilton. It is quite possible that a 10.7% increase for Morrisville, which would have happened if we'd been merged and Hamilton had "won" the votes, would have been a disaster for many Morrisville residents. There will be decisions like that; possibly not in the next few years, but they will come.
Estimated per capita income in 2011: $15,120
Estimated median house or condo value in 2011: $210,670 (it was $104,600 in 2000)
On page 65 of the SES data set I mentioned above, you see that Hamilton's "Percent unemployed" rate was then a little more than half of Morrisville's (6.4% vs. 11.6%). Why was this happening? I suspect that the major difference is that Colgate and the hospital put more into the local economy than SUNY Morrisville can. A secondary difference would be the national trends in unemployment, graphed at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Unemployment_Rate_by_Education_Level.png I don't know for sure, though, and it doesn't really matter. What matters is that the towns do have substantially different situations and that those situations are not converging. To tell people in different situations that they must make the same decisions, must pay the same tax rates (and must site their buildings on the same principles) is not egalitarianism. It's not good planning, either.
Oh, and yes, I do believe in equality of opportunity, and I'm glad that the state gives Morrisville more aid per local dollar than it gives Hamilton. Any particular aid ratio may be wrong, but it's a good mechanism, and I really hope that mechanism won't collapse although I expect it to be seriously stressed in years to come. I'm also glad that an increasing range of technological educational opportunities are low-cost or cost-free, like the Khan Academy. (Consider signing up your kids, and sign up as their coach?) That needs to expand -- and fortunately, it is expanding. That doesn't mean that I think that it's a good idea to require that both communities pay the same tax rates.
Update (October 12) In the letter above, I quoted the Syracuse Post-Standard's 2012 article saying that M-ECS had cut out all of its AP classes. Indeed, the SES data provided to us as CAC members said, as of early September of 2013 Feasibility Study HAMILTON MORRISVILLE presented on Sept 9 and 12
Hamilton has been able to maintain their core of AP courses at the high school, while M-E has been forced to eliminate theirs.Evidently this was true as of 2011-2012, but not 2012-2013; M-E was able to restore two AP courses, as we see at the HCS BoE site's AP class comparison. This year they
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